Nama : Suci Mutiara
NPM :
16210708
Kelas : 4EA14
The Mint countries: Next economic giants?
Building
an Ikea for the 28 million people living in greater Jakarta
In
2001 the world began talking about the Bric countries - Brazil, Russia, India
and China - as potential powerhouses of the world economy. The term was coined
by economist Jim O'Neill, who has now identified the "Mint" countries
- Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey - as emerging economic giants. Here he
explains why. So what is it about the so-called Mint countries that makes them
so special? Why these four countries? A friend who has followed the Bric story
noted sardonically that they are probably "fresher" than the Brics.
What they really share beyond having a lot of people, is that at least for the
next 20 years, they have really good "inner" demographics - they are
all going to see a rise in the number of people eligible to work relative to
those not working. This is the envy of
many developed countries but also two of the Bric countries, China and Russia.
So, if Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey get their act together, some of
them could match Chinese-style double-digit rates between 2003 and 2008.
Something
else three of them share, which Mexican Foreign Minister Jose Antonio Meade
Kuribrena pointed out to me, is that they all have geographical positions that
should be an advantage as patterns of world trade change. For example, Mexico is next door to the US,
but also Latin America. Indonesia is in the heart of South-east Asia but also
has deep connections with China. And as we all know, Turkey is in both the West
and East. Nigeria is not really similar in this regard for now, partly because
of Africa's lack of development, but it could be in the future if African
countries stop fighting and trade with each other. This might in fact be the
basis for the Mint countries developing their own economic-political club just
as the Bric countries did - one of the biggest surprises of the whole Bric
thing for me. I can smell the possibility of a Mint club already. What I also
realised after talking to Meade Kuribrena, is that the creation of the Mint
acronym could spur pressure for Nigeria to become a member of the G20, as the
other Mints already are. This was
something the charismatic Nigerian finance minister, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala was
keen to talk about: "We know our time will come," she said. "We
think they are missing something by not having us." Meade Kuribrena went
so far as to suggest that, as a group of four countries, the Mints have more in
common than the Brics. I am not sure about that, but it is an interesting idea.
Economically three of them - Mexico, Indonesia and Nigeria - are commodity
producers and only Turkey isn't. This contrasts with the Bric countries where
two - Brazil and Russia - are commodity producers and the other two - China and
India - aren't. In terms of wealth, Mexico and Turkey are at about the same
level, earning annually about $10,000 (£6,100) per head. This compares with
$3,500 (£2,100) per head in Indonesia and $1,500 (£900) per head in Nigeria,
which is on a par with India. They are a bit behind Russia - $14,000 (£8,500)
per head - and Brazil on $11,300 (£6,800), but still a bit ahead of China -
$6,000 (£3,600).
Projected growth in average
income (thousands $)
|
|||
2000
|
2012
|
2050 (projected)
|
|
Mexico
|
7.0
|
10.6
|
48.0
|
Indonesia
|
0.8
|
3.6
|
21.0
|
Nigeria
|
0.2
|
1.4
|
12.6
|
Turkey
|
4.1
|
10.6
|
48.5
|
A
big question that guided my thinking on visits to these countries for the BBC
was - "How do these countries actually feel on the ground, compared to my
own expectations and the general consensus of opinion?" When expectations
are low - as one might generally say about Nigeria for example (although not in
recent years among specialist investors in Africa) - it is easier to be
positively surprised. But the opposite is also true - and this could be a
problem for Mexico, which financial investors are really quite excited about.
Mexico
owes much of its rising wealth to the oil which it sits on, especially offshore
oil
I
returned from my travels thinking it won't be so difficult for Nigeria and
Turkey to positively surprise people, as many put far too much weight on the
negative issues that are well-known - crime and corruption in Nigeria, for
example, or heavy-handed government in Turkey. Indonesia, I am less sure about.
The country's challenges are as big as I thought and I didn't hear too many
things that made me go "Wow" in terms of trying to deal with them.
The country needs more of a sense of commercial purpose beyond commodities, and
has to improve its infrastructure.
In
Turkey, visits to white goods manufacturer Beko and Turkish Airlines, the
world's fastest growing airline, definitely made me go "Wow", and in
Nigeria, I was saying it all the time.
Turkish Airlines: The world's
fastest-growing airline
The
creativity in that place is so easy to get enthused about, at least it was for
me, and I returned full of excitement about different personal investments I
might follow up on. In Mexico I was all set to be disappointed, as expectations
are so high, but the young president and his equally young colleagues are full
of determination to change the place. If
you thought Maggie Thatcher stood for serious reforms, these guys make her seem
like a kitten. They are reforming everything from education, energy and fiscal
policy to the institution of government itself. What about all the challenges
and things that usually scare people? Well corruption is obviously one topic
that all four would seem to share, and I had many interesting discussions about
it in each country. In Nigeria, Central
Bank Governor Lamido Sanusi argued that corruption rarely prevents economic
development - and that the growth of the economy, accompanied by improvements
in education, will lead to better governance and greater transparency. Such
views are important to listen to, as an alternative to our often simplistic
Western way of thinking. For many credible people in the Mint countries,
corruption is a consequence of their weak past, not a cause of a weak future,
and certainly not the number one challenge. It falls way down a list compared
with the costs of energy and the breadth of its availability and, of course,
infrastructure.
Generators are much in demand in
Lagos
Sorting
out energy policy was seen in both Mexico and Nigeria as a top priority and
each country has launched a major initiatives this year, which if implemented,
will accelerate growth rates significantly. Here is an amazing statistic. About
170 million people in Nigeria share about the same amount of power that is used
by about 1.5 million people in the UK. Almost every business has to generate
its own power. The costs are enormous. "Can you imagine, can you believe,
that this country has been growing at 7% with no power, with zero power? It's a
joke." says Africa's richest man, Aliko Dangote. He's right. I reckon
Nigeria could grow at 10-12% by sorting out this problem alone. That would
double the size of its economy in six or seven years.
In
Indonesia, the fourth largest country in the world, I would say leadership and
infrastructure are the major challenges, though there are many more too. But
challenges and opportunities sit side by side.
In one of Jakarta's slum areas, Pluit, the land is sinking by 20cm per
year because of over-extraction of water, but property prices elsewhere in the
city are rocketing. I talked to a man building the country's first Ikea store,
who reckons a third of greater Jakarta's population of 28 million (the third
biggest conurbation in the world) would have sufficient disposable income to
shop at his store. As he said: "We just know it's going to work."
In
Turkey of course, its politics and the combination of a Muslim faith with some
kind of desire to do things the Western way is a unique sort of challenge. Some
might argue the same challenge exists for Indonesia but I returned thinking
this was not the case. In Jakarta at least, the Western way of doing things
seems to be generally accepted - in striking contrast with Turkey. So can the
Mints join the top 10 largest economies in the world, after the US, China, the
rest of the Brics and maybe Japan?
I
think so, though it may take 30 years.
I
look forward to going back to each of them more regularly now I am helping to
put them on the map, just as happened with the Bric countries 12 years ago.
REFERENCE
: http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-25548060
